Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.054231 0.061887 0.070481 0.080891 0.093220 0.107431 0.125161
2025-12-07 0.043713 0.053360 0.065123 0.080686 0.100982 0.126898 0.163058
2025-12-14 0.035157 0.045386 0.058756 0.077853 0.104996 0.143087 0.202253
2025-12-21 0.027443 0.037100 0.050479 0.070880 0.102152 0.149952 0.232050
2025-12-28 0.023397 0.033102 0.047350 0.070578 0.109112 0.173685 0.297759
2026-01-04 0.020548 0.030349 0.045558 0.072026 0.119563 0.207169 0.397081
2026-01-11 0.017975 0.027591 0.043279 0.072282 0.128435 0.241985 0.520256
2026-01-18 0.015833 0.025175 0.041136 0.072373 0.137397 0.281593 0.682823
2026-01-25 0.013764 0.022553 0.038182 0.070339 0.141778 0.314293 0.856749
2026-02-01 0.011876 0.019965 0.034853 0.066848 0.142168 0.338770 1.033063
2026-02-08 0.010698 0.018485 0.033357 0.066880 0.151066 0.391302 1.365895
2026-02-15 0.009720 0.017233 0.032096 0.067174 0.161044 0.454190 1.831665
2026-02-22 0.008933 0.016266 0.031309 0.068579 0.175385 0.544061 2.601310
2026-03-01 0.008211 0.015321 0.030411 0.069550 0.189366 0.646294 3.702036
2026-03-08 0.007412 0.014110 0.028724 0.068099 0.195574 0.725873 4.917065
2026-03-15 0.006480 0.012499 0.025876 0.062848 0.187177 0.736632 5.640909
2026-03-22 0.006000 0.011804 0.025063 0.063159 0.199016 0.859751 8.082800
2026-03-29 0.005651 0.011349 0.024756 0.064914 0.217639 1.045370 12.617972
2026-04-05 0.005281 0.010801 0.024126 0.065548 0.232554 1.234507 19.208867
2026-04-12 0.004941 0.010276 0.023474 0.065969 0.247252 1.450968 29.718629
2026-04-19 0.004556 0.009601 0.022318 0.064423 0.252360 1.609315 42.125690
2026-04-26 0.004160 0.008855 0.020864 0.061496 0.249452 1.701525 55.040001
2026-05-03 0.003918 0.008459 0.020318 0.061701 0.263286 1.985275 90.224095